Region Predictions: Midlands 5A and 4A

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It’s time for the football that counts – Region Play – and I want to take a pre-region-play look at what I think is going to happen as we move through the next five weeks and teams begin to position for playoff spots.

CLASS 5A

REGION 4

I predicted Sumter to win this region in preseason and I am sticking with that. They are on a different level than everyone else in this region. As quarterback Hayden Vasquez executes an offense by distributing the ball so well among so many weapons, this offense is tough to stop. Defensively, they are physical and don’t bend. Junior defensive end Justus Boone is a monster coming off of the edge and they are solid at every position on defense.

The big question in this region is going to be who gets 2^nd place. At first glance, it would appear that Blythewood would be the front runner for that spot. Solid play from quarterback Josh Strickland has done wonders for them this year and having Brandon Edwards on both sides of the ball is a plus. But their offensive line is not very proficient and that could be the Achilles heel for them. Spring Valley could challenge for the 2^nd spot but they are very young, particularly on the offensive line. Their sophomore quarterback is a bright spot for them but their lack of depth and dealing with injuries make me more cautious when looking at them as a 2^nd place finisher. Lugoff-Elgin is the wildcard in this region. I felt like they would not win a region game this season but after watching them play, particularly their defense, coordinated by one of my favorite guys, Bill Bacon, it makes me think they could very well be in the mix to finish in the third spot or even as high as 2^nd if they play well. Which leaves Irmo. I’m not sure what to think about Irmo. I knew they would struggle in Coach Brand’s first year there. But I didn’t expect them to look as lethargic on the offense. They are fighting through a season with a roster that only had two returning starters. Defensively, I think they can stay in games, but they must get help from the offense if they are going to compete. At this point, I just don’t know if they can win in region play.

MY PREDICTION

1. Sumter
2. Blythewood
3. Spring Valley
4. Lugoff-Elgin
5. Irmo

REGION 5

Dutch Fork is still my predicted winner of the region and the 5A State Title. Quarterback Ty Olenchuk has to be a candidate for Mr. Football because I haven’t seen anyone in the state throw a better football. I’ve seen a couple of guys that throw as good, but none better. And, he’s still unbeaten as a starter. This team is loaded at every position and possess the state’s best football player, Jalin Hyatt. Defensively, they are a force, strong at every position, but in particular up front, where they are highly under rated. I told everyone Trey Irby would make the Shrine Bowl and it was because those coaches saw what I saw – a kid who wrecks backfields better than anyone in the state.

2^nd Place is up for grabs. All four of the other teams have a shot at grabbing this: River Bluff, Lexington, and White Knoll. Part of that equation we will solve this week and White Knoll travels to Lexington. River Bluff has the ground game to get it done and play well on the offensive front. But their vertical passing game is not very good, which enables defenses to challenge the run game. Defensively, they showed their vulnerability in the flats and on the edge against Gilbert. White Knoll has one of the best players in the region at Quarterback. That said, he is 63% of their offensive production om yards and has scored more than half of their 251 points. In other words, slow his game down and you slow down their ability to score. Lexington may be the strongest of those three teams defensively, but they are a true singular identity on offense. They have the best running back combo in the region but they are lethargic in the passing game. Chapin must be considered as well, with a quarterback that has had a tremendous season thus far, leading a strong passing attack. That said, I’m not sure they are a lot different than Lexington in their one-dimension on offense.

MY PREDICTION

1. Dutch Fork
2. River Bluff
3. Lexington
4. White Knoll
5. Chapin

CLASS 4A

REGION 3

We have three teams competing in this region and I believe only one of them has a legitimate shot at the top spot. Westwood has played strong football after suffering a season opening loss to Lugoff-Elgin, but their offense is not nearly as explosive as I thought it would be and with a lack of ground game they are going to find it difficult to unseat South Pointe.

RidgeView is playing very well on defense but their offense is not what it needs to be in order to challenge for the top spot. Sophomore quarterback Andre Washington has done an admirable job minus a few “rookie’ mistakes. This team has to get better to finish any higher than third in the region.

Richland Northeast is a dumpster fire offensively. I don’t understand why they continue to try to throw the football when they have athletes that could be running behind that HUGE offensive line they have. Regardless, they won’t win a region game this season.

MY PREDICTION

1. South Pointe
2. Westwood
3. RidgeView
4. York
5. Lancaster
6. Richland Northeast

REGION 4

Brookland-Cayce and Airport are the two Midlands teams in this region and I believe either could win it. Right now, the Eagles have the offense they need to get it done. Their quarterback has become an impact player in this scheme and running back Bruce Staley is one of, if not the, best player in the region. Wide receiver Nanders Lawrence is the most electric player in the region. Brookland-Cayce has the type of team that can beat anyone on any night IF they play well. They don’t play consistent and some of that is due to Coach Charpia trying to play a lot of players. But I think this team will be different as region play begins and we will see more of the “best 11” philosophy being applied.

MY PREDICTION

1. Airport
2. Brookland-Cayce
3. North Augusta
4. South Aiken
5. Aiken
6. Midland Valley

REGION 5

AC Flora is the leader in this region and I don’t see them slipping up against any other team here. Their offense is getting better at quarterback as Wise Segars continues to develop and Matt Pack is a force in the ground game. Their offensive line does not get enough credit for t heir well play. Defensively, they are one of the best in the region. I love their defensive front as the best in town and they are solid at LB and in the secondary. Right now, Dustin Curtis has to get a nod at a Midlands Coach of the Year honor.

The 2^nd spot is up for grabs. I think Orangeburg-Wilkinson has a shot at finishing 2^nd in this region this year. Lower Richland has the players and the talent to get to the 2^nd spot but they have severely underachieved this season. They are 1-4 but their four losses were to teams with a combined record of 15-4 and all are threatening for 1^st in their respective regions. So they have played a tough schedule. I think it comes down to LR and OW for the 2^nd spot.

Dreher is just not very good this season. They suffered attrition due to graduation of talent from last year’s roster and then suffered a major setback when quarterback Ryan Campbell went down of for the season. So playing young with an inexperienced quarterback is not a good combination. Coach Sullivan will get them turned around but it won’t be this season. That said, I think they can finish in the fourth spot, edging out Crestwood and Lakewood.

MY PREDICTION

1. AC Flora
2. Lower Richland
3. Orangeburg-Wilkinson
4. Dreher
5. Crestwood
6. Lakewood