Baxter’s Blitz: Transfer Portals and Fake Offers and other Scary Stories

It has been extremely difficult to get recruited to play college football for many years. The competition for scholarships has always been fierce high school players across the country competed hard on the field and in showcases, combines and college camps. And now, it has become even more difficult because of the transfer portal.

To the point, the transfer portal at the NCAA is hurting high school football players in the recruiting game. There are far fewer scholarships going to high school prospects than ever before. Now, people will point that there are offers being put out there all across the country by schools, and they are right. But the truth of the matter is, most of those offers are not “takes”, meaning they are not commitable offers. You’ll see the term “fake offers” used and that is what they are referring to: offers that if you tried to commit to, the school wouldn’t take the commitment. You’ve seen the “Blessed to receive an offer from…” announcements on the bird app but the vast majority of those are not real offers. They are verbal offers. These guys that are claiming a dozen offers; they aren’t real. That is not to say a recruiter didn’t tell the kid, “we want to offer you,” because they probably did. But it’s not a real offer; not a take.

So why are the colleges throwing these offers out there? Well, the main reason is so they can get in on the ground floor of a “potential” prospect. Most of those “verbal offers” come with a “we can’t take your commitment until you come to camp.” Basically, they want to get you on campus and evaluate you to make sure you are a real prospect AND they want to be in early in case you really do blow up and they can say they already had an offer out on you.

And now, with the transfer portal activity, the “real offers” are fewer than ever. If you take a look at the schools getting their players from the transfer portal it seems to be going up. In the SEC, schools like Kentucky and Arkansas get 6 players from the transfer portal while schools like South Carolina and Tennessee raid the portal for 10 players each. That’s 20 scholarships between those schools that will not go to high school prospects. Think about it, if I’m a college coach and I need a good wide receiver and I’ve got a high school star on the board and there is a WR who played two years at a Group of Five or some other Division I school and is in the portal, and the talent level of each of these players is close, I’m taking the portal kid. Why? For one, he’s proven college experience. He’s played against the college level talent already; he’s been in a college weight room for two years; he’s got experience as a student, as in knows how to balance football and class.

I’m seeing high school players right now in the Midlands that are in their senior year with no offers yet, where as fifteen years ago, they would have had offers already. Even the small schools are handing out fewer offers and heading to the portal to shop.

And the Portal is even hurting college players. the NCAA estimates that 43% of athletes that hit the Portal never end up enrolled at another school. That’s scary when you consider high number of student-athletes that enter the portal every year. It’s like a black hole in space, just sucking kids into it and not all make it out.

So what can you do about this? Well, unfortunately, you are at the mercy of the football Gods. All you can do is keep working and make yourself as recruitable as possible. What does that mean? Well, obviously it means keep working on your skills, working out and being the best player and teammate you can be. But it also means working that same way in the classroom. Demonstrate to recruiters that you can balance sports and class; that you aren’t going to be a guy that they have to constantly work on to keep eligible.

In the end, it may be a smaller school than you wanted that comes calling. And what YOU should do is realize that the goal here is to trade your football skills for an education. Do not lose sight of that. I’m not telling you not to dream that you’re going all the way, what I’m telling you to do is realize that even in a best case scenerio, where you DO make it to college and then get a shot in the league, chances are your football career will end in your mid to late 20’s. Realize this…there is a LOT more life on the other side of football than there is on this side of it. So, hit the books, care about your grades, stay out of trouble and make yourself attractive as a citizen, which will make you attractive as a student-athlete.

About Jim Baxter

Founder of SCVarsity.com, and The Southern PIgskin Report. Former publisher with Rivals.com and Nationally published recruiting anlayst witih 30 years of experience in the industry. His work has appeared in publications such as Athlon, Sporting News, The Recruiting News and Deep South Recruiting. He is the author of the best selling book, The Book On Evaluating Football Players.

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